Polymarket Combos / independent analysis
Build it. Price it. Question it.
Public leg prices, the arithmetic they support, and the fee on top. Bookie does not submit RFQs or place trades.
Public catalog
Publicly listed eligible legs. Displayed prices are inputs to the independence benchmark, not a native Combo quote.
Loading public Combo-compatible markets…
Manual input
Useful when catalog data is down or you are working from a legitimate external research sample.
No legs yet.
Start from the public catalog above or add a probability manually. The math appears as soon as there is a leg to inspect.
Probability visualizer
This is deliberately simple math: each leg is treated as independent. Real-world legs can be correlated, which is why this is a teaching tool—not a fair-price engine.
Combined probability by leg count
independence benchmarkTry the math
Result
72.9%
3 legs → roughly 1 in 1.4 under the independence assumption.
Public compatible-market data can show leg prices. It does not give Bookie permission to pretend it has an executable native Combo quote.
Multiplication is the naive independence benchmark. Shared events, subjects, and outcomes can make that assumption inappropriate.
No hot picks, countdowns, or manufactured excitement. The point is to see the mechanics before deciding whether to do anything.
Keep reading
Read the maintained reference for mechanics, RFQ boundaries, cash-out uncertainty, and the terminology Polymarket uses today.