Polymarket Combos / independent analysis
Work through the math before you trust the shape of a Combo.
Public leg prices, the arithmetic they support, and the fee on top. Bookie does not submit RFQs or place trades.
Public catalog
Publicly listed eligible legs. Displayed prices are inputs to the independence benchmark, not a native Combo quote.
Loading public Combo-compatible markets…
Manual input
Useful when catalog data is down or you are working from a legitimate external research sample.
No legs yet.
Start from the public catalog above or add a probability manually. The math appears as soon as there is a leg to inspect.
It multiplies selected probabilities. That is the naive independence benchmark—the simple baseline you would use only if every leg were independent.
It does not know a fair price, your expected value, or whether someone will quote or buy a native Combo. Those require evidence this calculator does not fabricate.
Treat it as a question. Check correlation, execution conditions, liquidity, and the source of the observed input before assigning meaning to it.