01 · Vocabulary
Five labels that keep the screen honest.
| Label | Read it as | Do not turn it into |
|---|---|---|
| Leg | One selected outcome with its own resolution condition. | A vague supporting reason for another leg. |
| Combo | A position that needs every selected leg to resolve your way. | A basket where partial success is enough. |
| Independence benchmark | Bookie’s explanatory multiplication of selected probability inputs. | A venue quote, fair value, or prediction. |
| Venue quote | A current, venue-provided price and terms for a specific request, if available. | A reusable number for another size, time, or combination. |
| Cash out | An attempt to sell a position before resolution when a buyer or quote exists. | A guaranteed redemption button. |
02 · Before the click
A slow checklist beats a fast hunch.
- Read every leg’s full question, selected outcome, and resolution condition—not just the visible team or market label.
- Mark each number correctly: public market data, a Bookie calculation, a user-entered figure, or a current venue quote.
- Notice shared events, teams, players, or conditions that make simple independence math less descriptive.
- Check whether the venue can currently quote this exact combination, rather than assuming every visible leg is Combo-eligible.
- Understand that all legs must resolve in your favor for the Combo to win, and that an early sale may have no current counterparty.
- Follow current venue availability rules and local law. Do not use this site to work around restrictions.
03 · What the state actually tells you
Status language should describe, not persuade.
| What you see | What you can infer | What you cannot infer |
|---|---|---|
| Public catalog result | The source lists a market as a current Combo-leg candidate or capability record. | That the visitor has a live, executable Combo quote. |
| Bookie calculation | The displayed math follows the stated user inputs and assumptions. | That the venue agrees with it or will fill it. |
| Current venue quote | A venue is showing current terms for the specified request. | That it will remain available after the quote window or for another size. |
| Greyed-out / no quote | The venue is not currently presenting a fillable request in that state. | That the market view is invalid or that another request will definitely work. |
| Cash-out available | A current early-sale interaction may be available to review. | That selling is required, optimal, or available later. |
04 · One formula, named properly
Use probability as a check on intuition—not as a promise.
When—and only when—you intentionally assume legs are independent:
The result is not a Polymarket quote. It is not a claim of profit, an “edge,” or a forecast. It is an arithmetic consequence of your inputs and the independence assumption you chose.